投资组合理论在勘探规划编制中的应用

Application of Investment Portfolio Theory in Exploration Programming

单从经济学的角度,油气勘探开发投资与其他领域的实业投资或金融投资没有什么本质上的差别。因此,适用于其他领域的决策方法在油气工业领域同样是适用的。投资优化技术现已成为油气勘探开发决策领域的实用化技术,是各大油公司合理确定勘探目标投资组合与勘探项目投资组合,最大可能减低勘探开发投资风险并获得最大收益的主要技术手段。勘探投资组合优化是勘探项目投资规划中的关键问题,其核心,一是优先选择实施效益好、风险低的勘探项目。二是实现勘探项目组合的优化,使其收益最高、风险最小。目前国内使用的是用综合系数法对勘探项目进行排队,按排队的顺序优选勘探项目。现在国际上先进的多项目优化方法是应用投资组合理论,把各个项目的期望收益率和风险综合考虑,优选出效益好、风险低的组合方案。

There is no difference in essence between oil - gas exploration and development investment and industrial investment or financial investment in other fields from the point of economics alone. Therefore, the decision - making methods used in the other fields also fit for the oil - gas industry. The investment optimizing technique has became a practical technique in the decision - making of oil - gas exploration and development, is widely used by oil companies in determining the investment portfolio of exploration target and project, and minimizing the investment risks and maximizing profits.