地区宏观税负与经济增长关系的研究——基于天津市经济发展数据的动态计量模型分析

An Empirical Research on Relationship between Macrotax Rate and GDP Growth Rate Based on Tianjin Data

对天津市1978年～2005年区间数据进行动态计量分析,结果显示:改革开放以来,天津市宏观税负总体呈下降趋势,但近年来略有回升;宏观税负与经济增长率不存在长期的均衡关系,但存在正向反应机制。从事实来看,尽管税收持续高增长会使一段时期内地区宏观税负有所提升,但天津市的地区宏观税负总体变化是平稳的。因此,应关注到宏观税负的提高会在一定程度上抑制地区经济发展的速度,甚至破坏经济发展的质量,协调好两者之间的关系十分重要。

Based on Tianjin data, the results of several econometric models indicate that tax burden in Tianjin area has significantly declined since 1978, but it rises a bit in recent years. Meanwhile, there exists a reverse reaction mechanism in the relation between variables of macrotax rate and GDP growth rate which fail to keep long term equilibrium. Despite that high growth of tax income results in the rise of the macrotax burden in certain period, variable of macrotax rate is very smooth as a whole. It is very important to actively adjust policies based on the relations of two variables.