美日技术创新与贸易竞争优势演变差异的结构性因素分析——基于固定市场份额模型的分析

Analysis of Structural Factors of the Differences between the U.S. and Japan in Technological Innovation and Evolution of Trade Competitive Advantages: Based on the Constant Market Share Model

作为世界上最大的两个技术创新和贸易强国,美国和日本技术创新绩效与贸易结构的优化在上世纪80年代后期开始体现出明显的差异并导致贸易竞争力的较大反差。本文借用固定市场份额法,对美日两国从上世纪80年代末到本世纪初技术创新的产业分布和出口市场份额变动的结构效应进行分解和实证分析,从而得出:两国从上世纪80年代末开始,技术创新产业选择方向出现了明显的不同,从而产业结构(贸易结构)的转换出现了较大差异,美国结构成功转型,贸易竞争优势得到了明显的提高;而日本产业结构和贸易结构转型一直在摸索阶段,结构升级的缓慢是日本贸易竞争优势有所下降的内在原因。

This paper adopts the constant market share method to analyse empirically the industrial distribution of tecinological innovation and the structural effects of the shares changing in export market of U.S. and Japan from the end of the 1980′s to the beginning of this century. The conclusions are as follows: the two countries began to differ obviously in the selection of technological innovation industries since the end of the 1980′s, which has caused their great difference in the transformation industrial structure or trade structure. U.S. has succeeded in the structural transformation, and consequently has got the obvious improvement in the predominance of the trade competition, while Japan has been in the exploration for a long time. The ultimate reason for the drop of the trade predominance is that the structure of industry upgrade slowly.