昆明世博会效应的定量估算:本底趋势线模型

Quantitative Effects Assessments of Expo ′99 Kunming:Model of Background Trend Line

对重大事件活动效应的估算是事件及事件旅游研究的重要问题。以往的研究提出了很多方法,由于财务统计资料不完整和相关影响难于界定,这些方法往往难于进行量化计算。以本底趋势线模型方法为依据,在对其进行改造的基础上,用通行的SPSS和Excel程序包进行统计分析,对1999昆明世博会的经济和旅游效应进行了定量评估。

In the field of event impacts assessment （EIA）, there are many quantitative methods given in western event and event tourism existing literatures. Like the general EIA method, the classical method assessing the economic effects of World Fairs （Expo） is ＂cost-benefit analysis＂, and the basic technique is ＂input-output method＂ or called ＂inter-industrial relations analysis＂. These methods are usually not easy to calculate because the financial statistic data are always imperfect and most indices of effects are difficult to quantitatively define. Furthermore, it is more difficult to extract the event＇s effects from multi-factors that affect the destination＇s development just as to extract the tourism＇s impacts alone from multi-factors affecting the changes of economies, environments and societies. Taking the 14th International Horticulture Exposition in Kunming 1999 （i. e. Expo＇99 Kunming） as an one-time mega-event case, the paper deals with the problem of imperfect financial data and the difficult extraction of event＇s impacts from multi-factors of socio-economic development using the method of Back- ground Trend Line Model （BTLM） presented by SUN Gen-Nian. With SPSS and Excel packages, the paper calculates the affected values, the contribution values and corresponding ratios of the Expo to Kunming＇s tourism industry and GDP. Resulted from the quantitative analyses, the conclusions are that the Expo＇99 Kunming made the position of its tourism industry in the national economy development, the ratios of the tourism added values to GDP and the tierary industry＇ s added value improved in 1999, the hosted year of the Expo. But after the Expo ended, these increasing trends stopped, all indices reduced from 2000 and fluctuated from 2001, and dropped down acutely due to SARS in the year 2003. Thus the Expo is just an irregular event and it has not influenced the long-time total pulsating trend of Kunming＇s tourism industry and its position in the national economy.