人民币汇率对FDI影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate on FDI

人民币汇率长期波动的降低和人民币贬值都能促进FDI的流入,而短期波动对FDI的影响并不显著。在2005年7月我国实行更有弹性的汇率机制后,保持汇率的长期稳定对促进外资流入具有重大的意义,同时可以在短期内调整汇率波动的自由度,加大宏观调控的政策空间。由于GDP增长比汇率变化对FDI的影响更为显著,名义汇率的升值并不会使我国今后的FDI流入明显下降。

Based on the theory of exchange rates and FDI econometric modeling, This article believes that lower long-term volatility of the RMB exchange rate and the devaluation of RMB will promote FDI inflows, Short-term fluctuations do not significantly affect FDI. Since July 2005, our country has adopted a more flexible mechanism for exchange rate. It is of great significance to keep the long-term stability of the exchange rate. Volatility in the exchange rate can be adjusted in the near future freely and intensively when the room for the adjustment of macro-control policy is going to be widened. The growth in GDP exerts more obvious influences in FDI than the variety of the exchange rate does, so the increase of the nominal exchange rate does not make future FDI inflows decline markedly.