上海市房地产业投机度分析

Analysis of Present Development of Real Estate in Shanghai

文章首先对2001—2005年的上海房地产作了概述,然后由理论分析得出上海房价增长速度过快,存在过热现象。于是构建了适合上海的投机理论模型。对时间序列进行研究,结果表明上海房地产市场的投机度很高,可支配收入对房价的影响不大,房价的上升主要是由投机因素来推动的。尤其在加入时间变量后,模型投机系数增大,投机行为更为明显,这说明房地产价格极大地偏离了长期均衡值,市场出现了非理性繁荣。所以政府及有关部门应采取适当的措施,积极引导消费者和投资者,减少房市中的泡沫成分,让其健康、稳定地发展。

Firstly, this paper has made the outline of real estate in Shanghai from 2001 to 2005. By theoretical analysis, it is proved the price of real estate rises excessively quickly in Shanghai, which shows too hot. So we build a speculation model, which is match to Shanghai. Through researching time .series, we find the speculation in the market of real estate is very serious. And the influence of income is not too big to house price, the price is impelled mainly by speculation. When we add time variable to the model, the speculation coefficient becomes greater. The speculation action also becomes more obvious. These all show the price of real estate is enormously deviated from the long- balanced value. The prosperity in market is irrational. So the government and relevant departments should pay attention to the speculation and take suitable measures to protect real estate developing healthily and stably.