世界主要能源矿产生产、需求和供求关系展望

Outlook for the relationships of production, demand and supply of the world's main energy minerals

根据多家国际能源评价机构的最新资料,对世界能源矿产石油、天然气、煤、铀的总资源量、总生产量和总需求量进行综合统计研究,分析其变化规律。在此基础上提出用供求关系平衡系数S来评价能源矿产供求的平衡及稳定状态,S绝对值越小,供求越平衡,但不代表供求稳定;只有在S为较小正值且在时间轴上波动不大时,才达到供求关系相对平衡而稳定状态。笔者综合各家多种资料,依据类比和趋势分析法,展望世界能源矿产供求关系走向。

According to the latest data from several energy resource evaluation agencies, the authors make an integrated statistic study of the total resources, supply and demand of the world＇s energy minerals, including oil, gas, coal and uranium and then analyze the characteristics of their changes. On that basis, they propose the supply-demand balance coefficient S to evaluate the balance and stability state of supply and demand of energy minerals. The lower the absolute value S is, the more balanced the supply and demand will be, but this does not mean the stability of supply and demand; only when S is a low and positive value and fluctuates little on the axis of time, can the supply and demand relationships reach balance and stability. By combining the statistic data from various sources and using the analogy and trend analyses, this paper presents an outlook for the supply and demand relationships of the world＇s energy mineral resources.