塑料老化程度的优化变参数模型及预测

Optimized Grey-forecasting Model with Unfixed Parameter for Extent of Plastics Aging

针对变参数灰色模型在实验数据少时误差较大的问题,提出了对非等间距序列优化的方法,使原来模型得到改进,从而提高了模型的拟合和预测精度,拓宽了应用范围。塑料制品的力学老化性能与其寿命密切相关,模型中对塑料自然老化拉伸强度,断裂伸长率进行预测,对塑料结构性能的研究有着重要的现实意义。

Based on the grey-forecasting model with unfixed parameter, the primary model was amehorated through optimized analysis on the non-equidistant sequence to improve its fitting and forecasting accuracy especially when there are only few experimental data. The newly generated model was then used in the prediction of the tensile strength and elongation at break of the plastics during a spontaneous aging process and the result indicated the model was available and effective for the research on the structural properties of plastics.