劳动力流动与城乡收入差距的协整分析

The Co-integration Analysis of the Labor Force Flow and the Gap between Urban and Rural Areas

按照传统经济理论,农村剩余劳动力的流动有助于缩小城乡收入差距。但是,现实情况却是农村剩余劳动力流动规模和城乡收入差距同时扩大。以往的研究往往只做了定性的研究,运用规范的时间序列分析方法对二者进行了协整分析和格兰杰因果检验。结果显示劳动力流动规模和城乡收入差距存在着长期均衡关系,并且估计出城乡收入差距对劳动力流动规模的弹性是0.0377。城乡收入差距是促成劳动力流动的格兰杰成因,但反之却不成立。

Along with the country relaxing the control of the household registration and the process of the urbanization going faster and faster, the surplus labor force of the countryside began to move to the city in a large scale. According to traditional economic theories, the outflow of the labor force contributes to contracting the gap between urban and rural areas. But in practicality the scale of the labor force outflow and the gap between urban and rural areas extend at the same time. This paper adopted normal time series method to conduct co-integration analysis and the Granger causality test concerning the two parts. The results show that the scale of the labor force flowing and the gap between urban and rural areas exist long term equilibrium. Additionally, the gap between urban and rural areas is the Granger cause of the labor force flow, Then, the corresponding suggestions were put forward.