中国夏季降水预测的能量互补模型

Energy Complementary Model for Summer Precipitation Forecast in China

统计结果表明,冬季最大能量特征线(副热带高空西风急流轴)与夏季最小能量特征线(副高脊线)在长江流域上空9-15 km近于重合,冬季高空西风急流轴位于夏季西太平洋副高588线的西北侧,即平均雨带附近。据此,可预测夏季主雨带。经1997-2005年实时预报,主雨带均无漏报。

The paper result shows winter maximum energy characteristic line （the westerly rushing axis of subtropical high pressure） and summer minimum energy characteristic line （subtropical high ridge） coincide with each other over 9-15 km of the Yangtze River valley. The westerly rushing axis of winter high pressure situates in the west-north of summer western Pacific subtropical high 588 line. It locates in average rain belt vicinity. According to this, we can forecast summer main rain belt. There is no missing report of main rain belt during 1997-2005.