利用卫星云图估算焦作市4-9月12h降水

The 12 Hour Precipitation Forecast of Jiaozuo Between April and September Based on the Satellite Cloud Images

利用2004-2006年FY-2C卫星云图资料,统计了云顶亮温与焦作市降水量的关系;并根据相邻两张云图中云顶低亮温中心移动的距离和时间,确定云的移速。在此基础上,建立了层状云和积状云降水估算方程。经对2005-2006年估算结果统计,层状云有无降水预报准确率为80%;对4次积状云降水的估算结果为1次漏报、1次降水量级误差较大、2次预报正确,准确率达50%。

Based on FY-2C satellite cloud images data during 2004--2006, the relationship between black body temperature and precipitation was stated. The cloud moving speed can he calculated by measuring moving distance and moving time of black body temperature low value area center in adjacent cloud images. The equation of precipitation forecast of sheet cloud and cumuliform cloud was constructed. The forecast accuracy rate is 80% for sheet cloud precipitation during 2005--2006. The forecast accuracy rate is 50% for quartic cumuliform cloud precipitation： one time missing report, one time error and two times correct forecasts.