路基沉降的组合模型预测研究

Research on combination forecasting for settlement of roadbed

基于路基沉降具有趋势性变化和随机变化的特点,建立了一个组合模型,采用Gompertz增长模型预测沉降的趋势项部分,AR模型预测沉降的随机项部分,二者之和作为总的沉降预测值,通过实例计算表明,组合预测模型能提高路基沉降量的短期预测精度,具有一定的应用价值。

By considering of that the settlement of roadbed has two characteristics of certain secular trend and stochastic fluctuation, a combination forecast model is established. In which the Gompertz modal is used to forecast the certain secular trend of the settlement and the AR model is used to forecast the stochastic fluctuation of the settlement, and the sum of the above two is used as the total settlement forecasting value. By example study it is showed that the combination model is of higher short term forecasting precision and has practical value.