货币政策与中国经济波动缓和化

Monetary policy and China's economy fluctuation moderating

本文基于中国人民银行对利率和货币量双重控制的现实,设计了体现这一现实的货币政策指标,并根据这一指标分析了货币政策与宏观经济波动的关系。中国货币政策虽然具有反周期的操作取向,但是货币政策本身却是造成经济波动的重要原因。中国自1997年以来宏观经济波动明显缓和化,其原因既包括基础因素冲击降低,也包括货币政策冲击的降低。中国货币政策在1997年以后有了很大的改善,主要是货币政策自身的波动减少了,货币政策更加稳健,不再像1997年以前那样在短期内出现巨大的变化。

Based on the reality of PBOC＇s controlling the interest rate and monetary quantity, the paper designs a monetary policy index to reflect the reality, and uses the index to analyze the relation between monetary policy and economy fluctuation. Though the operation of China＇s monetary policy is against economy cycle, monetary policy itself is the important reason for the economy fluctuation. Since 1997 the volatility of China＇s economy has been moderating, which can not only attribute to the decrease of fundamental shocks, but also attribute to the decrease of monetary policy shock.