基于风险指标的干旱期水资源系统运行优化分析

Water resources system operation optimization analysis during drought based on risk index

根据干旱期水资源系统运行性能分析特征,建立了基于供水可靠性最大、供水破坏恢复能力最强以及单一时段破坏深度最小等风险指标,同时考虑了城市和农业供水优先权问题的多目标混合整数规划模型.在实例研究中,运用多目标决策法中的协调规划原理,通过评价任一目标点与理想点的欧氏距离,获得多目标问题的最佳权衡解.计算结果表明,该多目标混合整数规划模型对解决需要考虑供水优先权的干旱期水库运行策略优化问题是可行而有效的.

According to the characteristic of water resources system operation performance analysis during drought, a multi-objective mixed integer programming model is established, which is based on the principle that the reliability and resilience are maximized, and the vulnerability of reservoir water supply is minimized. Meanwhile, the priority among urban water-supply, agricultural water-supply and so on is considered. In the study of a real system operation, the satisfying trade-off solution of multi-objective decision model is obtained by evaluating the Euclidian distance between some actual objective point and the ideal point. Computing results show the feasibility and effectiveness of practical application of the multi-objective mixed integer programming model on the reservoir operation policy analysis that considering the priority of several water-supply types during drought periods.