广西北部湾地区台风暴雨的统计特征

Statistical Characteristics of Typhoon Heavy Rainfall in the Beibu Gulf Area of Guangxi

利用1970-2004年中央气象台编制的《台风年鉴》和广西北部湾各站日雨量实况，对影响广西北部湾地区台风暴雨的气候特征进行统计分析，结果表明：影响北部湾地区的台风主要出现在7-9月，与南海台风相比，西太平洋台风引发北部湾地区的大暴雨次数较多，从台风登陆路径分析，Ⅱ类和Ⅰ类在湛江到钦州登陆路径的台风造成北部湾地区区域性暴雨天气的机率最大；Ⅲ类路径登陆的南海台风几乎都不影响该地区，不管何种路径，造成北部湾沿海地区暴雨，台风低压中心必须进入或者靠近这一地区。

35-year data sets and the data of the daily precipitation are used to study the statistical climatic characteristics in intensity change of tropical cyclone （TC） and heavy rain over the Beibu Gulf area. Results show that typhoons effecting Beibu Gulf area are mainly in the months of July, August and September. Compared with typhoons born in the South China Sea , typhoons born in the Pacific make the more torrential rain over Beibu Gulf area. On the point of the landing path of typhoons, the second and the first path scales that typhoon landing the place from Zhanjiang to Qinzhou can make more times of torrential rain. landing typhoons born in the South China Sea in the third kind of path have rare effect on the area. The center of typhoon is entering into or near to the area is the necessary condition to bring torrential rainfall in Beibu Gulf area.