基于“基尼系数”的降水时间分布均匀度变化研究

Study on Precipitation Temporal Distribution Homogeneous Degree based on the Gini Coefficient

基尼系数是经济学中对贫富差距量化评价的重要工具。文章通过基尼系数的引入实现了对降水时间分布均匀度进行量化评价，从而对降水变化做出更为全面、客观的评估，为城市降水与水资源预测、城市雨水收集、以及水资源安全建设提供重要参考。对昆明市1972-2001年30a降水时间分布均匀度评价表明：30a平均降水时间分布均匀度基尼系数为0.47457，其中1972-1981年平均为0.46672，1982-1991年平均为0.49068，1992-2001年平均为0.46631。降水时间分布均匀度基尼系数呈下降趋势，年际变幅增大，其中最小为1998年（0.3342），正是旱涝灾害严重的年份，说明我国季风区的城市旱涝灾害的主要原因是降水时间分布不均。

The Gini coefficient is an important index in measuring inequality in economics . It is introduced to assess the homogeneous degree of the precipitation distribution. The assessment of the homogeneous degree from 1972 to 2001 by Gini coefficient in Kunming city indicates that the 30-year mean Gini coefficient of homogeneous degree of temporal distribution of precipitation is 0. 47457 and the 10-year average value is 0. 46672 from 1972 to 1981, 0. 49068 from 1982 to 1991 and 0. 46631 from 1992 - 2001. The Gini coefficient of precipitation temporal distribution homogeneity degree is descent with a large inter-annual change and the smallest Gini coefficient is 0. 3342 in 1998, which has severe flood and draught. It shows that the precipitation temporal distribution in-homogeneity is the main reason to the severe drought and flood in city in the monsoon area in China.