现代金融经济中的经济泡沫分析

An Analysis of Bubbles in Modern Financial Economy

现代经济泡沫的复杂性,不仅体现在金融资产的独立运行规律上,而且体现在金融系统的内在脆弱性上。认识中国经济金融化进程中泡沫问题的一个基本思路是,金融资产交易所形成的泡沫对经济运行是有意义的,但是,如果增大的交易量已经不代表实体经济交易的需求,就会成为一种纯粹的虚拟活动而形成泡沫。总体上看,目前中国的房地产市场和股票市场并没有显示出泡沫的特征,然而,它们与金融系统的关系却需要引起高度关注。

The complexity of modem economic bubbles displays itself not only in the independent running of financial assets, but also in the inherent fragility of financial system. Usually a basic consideration about bubbles in the Chinese development of modem financial economy is that proper bubbles in financial assets trade will benefit economic running. However, if enlarged trade amount doesn＇t account for the actual requirement of economic trade, it becomes pure subjunctive activity, and thus harmful bubbles appear. Considering totally, in China, there are no signs that indicate the harmful bubbles both in real estate markets and in stock markets. But the relation between them and financial systems must be paid more attention to.