黑龙江省电力消费总量预测研究

Forecast research on total power consumption in Heilongjiang province

以黑龙江省2000～2004年电力消费总量为依据,利用改进的灰色理论中的GM(1,1)模型,建立电力消费总量预测模型,预测2005年的黑龙江省的电力消费总量,并与2005年实际数据进行对比,作出精度检验,评价模型的优劣,进而对未来黑龙江省电力消费总量作出预测。

Forecast model of total power consumption was set up by using GM （ 1,1 ） model in improved grey system theory on basis of total power consumption from the year of 2000 to 2004 in Heilongjiang province, by which the total power consumption in Heilongjiang province in 2005 was forecasted, and it was compared with the actual consumption data in 2005 in order to verify its precision and evaluate the model＇s advantage and disadvantage, the result showed that the model can be used for forecasting the total power consumption in the future in Heilongjiang province.