深井水位记震能力与地震预报

RECORDING EARTHQUAKE ABILITY OF WATER LEVEL OF DEEP WELL AND EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

深井水位测得震级M t与地震台网震级M s的差值为记震能力M st(M st=M s-M t),它能反映地下应力场状况。3口井1 559次记震能力与实际发生地震的检验结果,用R值法评分得0.50,具97.5%置信水平;用W allen法评分得0.54。3口井623个记震能力月度极大值与实际发生地震的检验结果,用R值法评分得0.42具97.5%置信水平;用W allen法评分得0.42。用深井水位记震能力预报地震的实践证明,深井水位记震能力是一种有用的地震前兆预报方法。

The recording earthquake ability Mst of the water level of a deep well can flect the state of under-ground stress field, which is the magnitude difference between Mt and Ms, where Ms is determined by a regional seismostation network, Mt is the magnitude of a coming earthquake from the level data of a deep well. 1 559 water level data related to earthquake of three deep wells is used to calculate the earthquake magnitudes and then these Mt are compared with the earthquake magnitudes Ms. These results show that these Mt are with the confidence level of 97.5 %, the R-value is 0.5 and the Wallen-value is 0.54. 623 maximum values of each month is used and these Mt are with confidence level of 97.5%, the R-value is 0.42 and the Wallen-value is 0.42. In the 16 years period past, the practice shows that the water level observation data analysis is a helpful method for earthquake prediction.