南京市经济增长与工业“三废”污染水平计量模型研究

MODELING THE LEVEL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE INDUSTRIAL "THREE WASTE" POLLUTION IN NANJING CITY

根据环境库兹涅茨曲线原理,选取南京市1985-2004年的经济与环境数据,运用SPSS和EXCEL软件,分析了经济因子与环境因子的相关关系,并建立了模拟经济因子与环境因子之间动态回归模型。研究结果表明,南京市工业废水排放量和人均GDP具有一般相关性,并不呈现库兹涅茨曲线倒“U”模型,而是呈三次曲线的“N”型,两个拐点分别在9000元和29000元,这可能与产业结构转变较快有关。工业废气排放量和固体废物产量与人均GDP存在显著相关性,符合环境库兹涅茨曲线的倒“U”模型,拐点分别在30000元和38000元,均提前实现拐点。此外环境政策与科技对工业废水排放量影响也较大。经济结构是影响工业废气排放量和固体废物产量的主要因素,同时,南京市有利的环保科技政策使这两个环境指标提前实现拐点。

Based on the famous Environmental Kuznets Curve and in the light of the economical and environmental data from 1985 to 2004 in Nanjing City,the interrelations between economical and environmental factors were analyzed and the dynamic regression models were also established using SPSS and Excel software. The results indicated that the correlation of the discharge amount of industrial waste water and GDP per capital does not fit the inverted ＂U＂ Environmental Kuznets Curve, but the ＂N＂ shape of cubic model with two turning points, at 9 000 yuan and 29 000 yuan respectively, possibly being the result of rapid change of industry structure. The correlations between the discharge amount of industrial waste gas and solid waste and GDP per capital both fit the Environmental Kuznets Curve well, and their turning points arrive early, being around 30 000 yuan and 39 000 yuan respectively. According to the turning point criterion of $ 500 in developed countries, the discharge amount of industrial waste gas and solid waste arrive the turning point earlier than in developed countries. As for the discharge amount of industrial ＂three waste＂ in Nanjing City, it can be concluded that： not all types of environmental indicators fit the Environmental Kuznets Curve relationship, and only the pollutants of industrial waste gas and solid waste have the character; economical factor only accounts for about 40% of the discharge amount of industrial waste water, and other factors, such as environmental policy and environmental planning, can basically explain about 60% of the discharge amount of industrial waste water; efficient policy and huge investment in environment have brought the turning point forward.