经济发展与环境退化的动态演进——环境库兹涅茨曲线研究进展

DYNAMICS IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION ——PROGRESS IN THE RESEARCH OF ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE

环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)阐述了经济发展和环境退化之间的动态演进过程,即随着经济的发展环境先不断恶化,到达顶点后逐渐改善。从实证研究、计量模型和分解分析三条线索回顾总结了国内外研究成果。随着EKC研究的发展,环境指标从污染指标扩展到资源生态指标和环境效率指标,而实证研究表明并非所有的环境指标和经济变量之间都存在“倒U型”关系。目前计量模型以简化式为多,结构式较少。由于分解分析方法能够定量化各种影响因素对污染排放变化的贡献率,因而在EKC成因研究中日益受到重视。尽管研究取得了较大进展,但生态环境阈值、污染的时空转移、数据处理与模型方法、环境控制政策和管理等方面仍需进一步研究,关键要在数据处理和模型构建方面取得突破。

Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） illustrates the pattern in changes of the relationship between economic development and environmental degradation. The pattern in changes of environmental quality degrades at the initial stage and then improves with the growth of economy. This paper reviews the progress in this area in respect of empirical research, econometric model and decomposition analysis in China and other countries. With the development of EKC, environmental proxies expand from environmental pollutants to resource and ecology proxies and to environmental efficiency proxies, and the inverse Ushaped relationship is not the unique form, which does not fit into all environmental proxies. The econometric models used in EKC study are mainly reduced models. The method of emission decomposition analysis can quantify the contribution of each factor in the change of pollution emission, and has been used widely. Although there are great advances in EKC research, some aspects such as the threshold of ecological system, the spatial and temporal transmission of pollution, the multi-formality of curve, data processing and econometric model, and environmental policy management still need to be further studied, among which data processing and econometric model are the key factors.