中国石油消费与经济增长的实证研究:1960-2005

An Empirical Research on the Relationship between China’s Petroleum Consumption and Economic Growth 1960 - 2005

本文在新古典经济学生产函数框架下,运用向量误差修正模型及中国1960-2005年的统计数据对中国石油消费与经济增长关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明中国石油消费、资本存量、劳动投入与经济增长之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系,并且中国石油消费已经对促进经济增长具有显著的影响效应。作者建议通过提高石油利用效率、完善石油市场体系,来缓解石油供给限制对经济增长带来的压力,促进中国经济实现可持续发展。

Based on the productin function of neo-classical economics, the paper develops a vector error-correction model to examine the relationship between China’s petroleum consumption and economic growth, with the reference to certain temporal series data of the period 1960-2005. The empirical findings indicate that there exists long-run equilibrium among China’s petroleum consumption, capital stock, labor and real GDP. The results also show that petroleum consumption has caused significantly impacts on economic growth. The paper suggests that we should enhance the restrictions and promote sustainable development of China’s economy.