基于博弈论的区域工业地价均衡分析及管理策略研究

On Regional Equilibrium of Industrial Land Price and Management Strategy Based on Game Theory

在中国,各地为了吸引投资,目前普遍实行低工业地价政策,这直接导致了工业用地粗放利用,并可能间接导致工业布局与地区生产要素禀赋不相适应,造成我国工业整体布局的不合理。我国沿海发达地区正处在城市化和工业化快速推进阶段,实行低工业地价政策更具危害性。博弈论方法可以为区域低工业地价的形成提供有效的机理分析,并给出地方政府采用正常地价策略、低地价策略,以及采用混合策略的可能区间。区域工业地价管理策略中,应该强化考虑社会成本以及创建地方政府进行合作所需要的制度条件。

The prevailing low industrial land price policy being implemented throughout China in order to attract investment has caused a direct result of extensive industrial land use and may make the industrial distribution and regional production factor endowments inappropriate. Moreover, such land price policy will make the country＇s overall industrial layout irrational and cause the industrial agglomeration degree to decline, thus affecting China＇s industrial competitiveness in the international arena. In the developed coastal areas of China, the industrialization is in an accelerated stage. To curb the driving down of prices of industrial land transactions around China and promote the intensive utilization of land, the regional balance of industrial land price has become a research question to be answered immediately. By employing game theory and taking China＇s developed coastal areas as the object of study, this paper makes model assumptions of the existing tax system and land expropriation. Andintroducing investment transfer coefficients and land price loss coefficients and assuming the different local governments as an insider, we build the local governments＇ expectation to win the game theory model and analyze the model parameters for scenario analysis. Furthermore, the analysis shows the possibility interval of the local governments who may have adopted the normal premium strategy, low premium strategy and the mixed strategy. Finally combined with the relevant investigation cases, the application analysis of the model is laid on the basis of a regional industrial land management strategy which stressed that local governments should consider the social costs in the industrial land transactions and the system conditions needed for the industrial.