外商直接投资与浙江产业经济发展的实证分析

Foreign Direct Investment and the Development of Zhejiang’s Industrial Economy: An Empirical Analysis

1983-2004年时间序列和横断面数据反映出浙江产业经济和外商直接投资现状:浙江的产业结构为典型的“二、三、一”模式;外商直接投资在浙江的产业分布严重失衡。从短期效应看,当年外商直接投资对浙江第三产业的影响最大,对第一产业的影响次之,对第二产业的影响最小。从长期效应看,超前两年的外商直接投资对浙江第一产业的影响最大,对第三产业的影响次之,对第二产业的影响最小。外商直接投资在浙江的产业分布严重失衡和外商直接投资对浙江三次产业的影响非均衡加剧了浙江产业结构失衡的现象。故可通过促进浙江产业结构高度化、产业经济和谐可持续发展来调整。

This paper analyzes the characteristics of the development of Zhejiang＇ s industrial economy, specifically for three GDP sectors （primary, secondary and tertiary sectors, or the 1^st industry, the 9.no industry, and the 3rd industry） during the period of 1983-2004. The result of the analysis indicates that the industrial structures in Zhejiang are a typical form of “2-3-1”, and changed from the first phase of semi-industrialization in 1983 to the mature phase of semi-industrialization in 2004. However, the growth of Zhejiang＇s three industrial economies was unbalanced, The paper also analyzes the foreign direct investment（FDI）in Zhejiang during the period of 1983-2004. It demonstrates that the distribution of FDI among Zhejiang＇s three GDP sectors were seriously unbalanced. The FDI in the 2no sector occupied an absolutely dominant position （81%）, the FDI in the 3rd sector was small （18%） while the FDI in the 1st sector was extremely small （less than 1%）. Using time series and panel data in the period of 1983--2004, this paper estimates the short-term and long-term effects of FDI in three GDP sectors in Zhejiang province. It demonstrates that FDI growth had a significant effect on all three sectors＇ growth in both the short-term and long-term. In the short term, FDI has had a positive and significant need-pull effect on Zhejiang＇s all three sectors. The effect of FDI was the largest on the growth of the 3^rd sector, second on the growth of the 1st sector, and the smallest on the growth of the 2^na sector. In the long term, the spillover effect of the prior two-year FDI has been positive and significant to Zhejiang＇s all three sectors. Surprisingly, the impact of the prior two-year FDI of either the Ist sector or 3^rd sector has been larger than that of the 2^na sector. It concludes that the unbalanced industrial structures in Zhejiang Province were worsened by both the serious unbalanced FDI distribution among Zhejiang＇s three GDP sectors and the unbalanced effects of FDI of Zhejiang＇s three GDP sectors. In order to better utilize FDI to upgrade Zhejiang＇s industrial structures, and to realize a smooth and sustainable development of Zhejiang＇ s industrial economy, this paper has the following suggestions： （1）to carry forward China＇ s opening-up policy, and to fully utilize the government role to influence the distribution of FDI in three GDP sectors, while further adopting preferential financial and tax policies toward the Ist sector （agriculture） and the 3~a sector （services）; （2）to enhance the government support to foreign investors who invest in Zhejiang high-tech industry, so as to transform Zhejiang＇s industry economy from the labor-intensive industry to capital-intensive and technology-intensive industry; and（3）to enhance the government monitoring on foreign investment in order to improve the quality of foreign investment, as well as to strengthen the service systems for foreign investments to meet the challenge in a “late transition-period” after entering the WTO.