套息交易与国际金融动荡新形式

以往发生的金融危机或多或少与国际炒家直接冲击主权货币或经济体系有关。近年来国际金融动荡出现了新形式,日元套息交易成为市场波动新根源。长期低利率及弱日元政策使日元成为了全球套息交易的主要目标。而对冲基金则是交易活动的最大参与者。在新的金融波动形式下,要防范国际市场风险,除了继续加强市场监察,尤其是加强对冲基金的监管;有关方面也应密切关注日本经济数据的变化,了解日本汇率、利率的政策走向,掌握日元资金变动的情况,防止日元利率、汇率突然变化可能给国际市场带来的冲击。

Financial crises in the past were triggered by direct speculative attacks. It seems that carry trade has replaced attacks against currencies as the major source of financial instability. Since Japan has maintained low interest rates and a weak Yen policy, together with abundant supply, the Yen has been the major global carry trade funding target, with hedge funds remained the major participant. This paper believes that in order to mitigate market risks under such new market environment, tight market surveillance, in particular over the hedge funds, demanding regular disclosure of their asset positions, should no doubt be continued. Besides, close monitoring of Japanese economic development, its interest rates and currency, as well as capital movement is also deemed necessary.