基于长期递归识别法的突发公共事件总需求冲击分析

Study on Aggregate Demand Shocks of Public Emergencies Based on Long-run Recursive Identification

“9·11”事件标志着世界进入了一个突发公共事件的多发期。为了从总需求冲击的角度分析突发公共事件的经济影响,可以使用长期递归识别法识别出中美两国的实际总需求冲击。分析表明,“9·11”事件、SARS事件和“卡特里娜”飓风事件均对总需求产生了冲击。引发总需求冲击的原因则主要在于突发公共事件对经济主体的预期和经济行为的改变。

The '9·11 terrorist attack' indicates that the world have entered into an era of frequent disaster events.In order to analyze aggregate demand shocks caused by public emergencies,'Long-run Recursive Identification' is applied to identify aggregate demand shocks of China and the United States from the real product and real price fluctuations.Hence the conclusion is that '9·11 terrorist attack',SARS and Hurricane Katrina are all able to cause aggregate demand shocks.The change of peoples' economic expectation and behavior is the main reason why public emergencies cause aggregate demand shocks.