摘要
基于TARCH—M模型和我国1954～2005年的经验数据,本文对波动与增长的关系进行了分析,结论表明,在我国,波动对长期经济增长具有负面影响,但统计上并不显著。另外,波动在经济增长的不同阶段对经济增长具有明显的对称性,而我国自1978年以来实施的对外开放和市场化改革不仅明显提高了经济的平均增长水平.而且也降低了经济的波动风险。
Based on TARCH-M model and China＇s empirical data, this text analyses the relations between fluctuation and growth,it concludes economic fluctuation has negative effects on the long-term economical growth, but which is not significant at 10%; economic fluctuation has obvious symmetry effects on growth in the different stage in China, moreover, China＇s opening up and market reform not only obviously raise the level of economic average growth, and also reduce the risk of economic fluctuation.
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第14期75-80,共6页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
