大流感爆发对中国经济的影响预测

Possible Impacts of Influenza Pandemic on China's Economy

当前,人类面临新一次大流感的威胁正在不断升级,分析与评估其可能带来的经济影响是制定应对大流感战略的重要基础。根据历史经验将大流感的爆发区分为温和与严重两种情况,在一系列假定的基础上对其经济影响进行估算。如果大流感爆发,不管是两种情况的哪一种,后果都是严重的,对中国经济的影响程度大体相当于2003年SARS(非典)情况的1—6倍。在温和情形下,大概会造成当年GDP下降0.9%,略大于2003年SARS给中国带来的影响,相当于2007年中国GDP减少2.1千亿元。在严重情形下,将可能降低中国当年GDP约5.1%,相当于2003年SARS的情况的6倍,相当于2007年GDP减少1.2万亿元。应充分认识到大流感的危害性,尽快完善应对大流感的国家战略;制定明确的财政支持计划,估计全国需要专项准备经费120亿元人民币以上;在危机应对预案中要有明确的经济工作预案。

The counter-pandemic strategy should be based on the analysis and Estimation of the possible impacts of Influenza Pandemic on the China＇s Economy, while the possibility of the outbreak of the next worldwide epidemic influenza is increasing. We estimate the impacts under two pandemic scenarios with some assumptions. If the Pandemic influenza broke out, its impacts on ehina＇s economy would be around 1--6 times as much as that of SARS in 2003. In the severe scenario, roughly similar to the 1918-- 1919 Spanish flu outbreak, China＇s real GDP would be about 5.1% lower, about six times as much as that of SARS in 2003, than it would have been had the pandemic not taken place. In the mild scenario, which resembles the 1957 and 1968 pandemics, it would reduce China＇s real GDP by about 0.9 percent, which is just over that of SARS in 2003.