ENSO引起的短期气候异常变化的潜在可预报性的数值研究

NUMERICAL STUDY FOR POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY OF SHORT TERM ANOMALOUS CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED BY ENSO

本文用大气环流模式（AGCM）研究了ENSO引起的全球短期气候异常变化的潜在可预报性。大气对ElNino／LaNina事件的响应分为瞬时响应和迟后响应。低纬地区的短期气候异常变化是由大气对海温异常瞬时和迟后响应共同作用产生的，潜在可预报性的时间长度达一年以上。中高纬地区对海温异常的响应以迟后响应为主。潜在可预报性存在地区差异，即迟后响应的强度与迟后时间和地区有关。其中环太平洋地区有较强的潜在可预报性，潜在可预报性的时间长度为三至四个月，有些地区可达一年。最后探讨了这村潜在可预报性形成的可能矾理。

In this paper, the nine-level atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM ) has beenused to simulate short term anomalous climate change caused by ENSO The experiental results show that the potential predictability in the tropics is more significant than that in themiddle and high latitudes. In the tropics,instantaneous and lag response to ElNino/LaNinacauses anomalous climate change. In the middle and high latitudes,the anomalous climate ismainly caused by the lag response of atmosphere to SSTA in the tropics. We analyze thecharacteristics of east China,the Far East and American.We also analyze the summer and winter anomaly of mean 500hPa height in the ENSOyear and the next year. The results show that the teleconnection pattern in summer is JP andthe one in winter is PNA. The two teleconnection patterns perhaps are the mechanism of thatthere is more potential predictability in the coasts of Pacific.