多输入线性模型(MLM/MLPM)用于平原地区地表产汇流研究——以山东省赵牛河为例

ON PLAIN RUNOFF BY USING MULTIPLE LINEAR MODEL (MLM) AND MULTIPLE LINEAR PERTURBATION MODEL (MLPM) ——A CASE STUDY IN ZHAONIU CATCHMENT OF SHANDONG PROVINCE

本文介绍了两个系统模型（多输入线性模型ＭＬＭ和多输入线性扰动模型ＭＬＰＭ）的基本思路，以赵牛河为研究流域，选取１９６０年～１９６７年逐日的降水、入流和出流、蒸发的资料，验算了两个模型。同时，结合一些计算结果，探讨了平原地区产汇流的一些特点。

This paper is to undertake the reserch on runoff and concentration in plain area by using systematic approach: multiple linear model (MLM) and multiple linear perturbation model (MLPM). A case study of Zhaoniu catchment in Shandong Provinve has been selected to calibrate and verificate the models' performance, which gives relatively good results in calibration period and poor results in verification period. The main reasons have been tentatively explained and specific characteristics in dealing with runoff for plain area have been explored.