摘要
基于灰关联分析，对道路交通事故的影响因子进行预处理，建立了基于多因子关联分析的道路交通事故GM（1，N）预测模型。对哈尔滨市1994年～2004年的道路交通事故进行实例分析，预测结果表明GM（1，N））模型的预测精度高于GM（1，1）模型及多元线性回归模型。该模型克服了GM（1，1）模型对于波动性较大的非平稳数列预测精度低的缺点，该模型具有简单、有效、预测精度高的特点。GM（1，N）模型是一种动态数据处理方法，且不会出现量化分析与定性分析结果矛盾的现象，能够很好的反映交通事故的未来发展趋势。
based on Grey-correlative analysis to deal with the influence factors of the traffic accidents,the Grey model-GM（ 1 ,N） for forecasting road accidents is built in this paper. Through analyzing traffic accidents occurred in Harbin from 1994 to 2004 ,the conclusion indicate that the precision of Grey model-GM（ 1 ,N）＂ for forecasting road accidents is better than that of GM（ 1,1 ） and the model of multivariate linear regression, the model has the merits of GM （ 1 , 1 ） forecasting which reduce random fluctuation of accident date affecting forecast precision, the model also has the characteristics of simple and effective and high precision. Because GM（ 1, N） is a method of dynamic,phenomenon of the analysis result contradiction that will not present quantitative analysis and determine the nature, So it can be used for road accidents forecast.
出处
《中南公路工程》
2007年第3期147-150,155,共5页
Central South Highway Engineering
