商业周期与区际经济一体化——自然壁垒、经济结构与政策

Business Cycle and Regional Economic Integration:Natural Barrier,Economic Structure and Policy

文章着重从商业周期角度来对我国区际一体化状况进行实证研究,即主要从“市场自然分割”与“政策与经济结构”两方面因素来探索商业周期的区域差异。总体来看,我国所有地区在两个时间样本期间（1992～1997年与1998～2004年）的就业和产出周期同步性均有所增加,说明商业周期的演进与我国经济体制改革基本同步;文章还分析了影响商业周期的不同解释变量,结果显示：控制变量的距离、规模与周期存在显著的相关性,而体现“东西边界”的外生变量则在绝大部分回归中则显著为负,说明在我国东西部之间可能存在一道明显的“区域分界线”,阻碍了大区域间的经济联系;此外,樊刚指数对区域周期的解释具有两面性,经济结构差异越合理,商业周期越走向同步性,而财政政策差异和贸易密度差异是我国商业周期的波动因素。

This paper documents a correlation between business cycle and regional economic integration, and explores the regional difference from both natural segmentation and economic structure and policy. Data from provinces for two periods of 1992 - 1997 and 1998-2004 emphasize increased synchronization for both employment and output cycle, which shows the synchronous correlation for business cycle and economics system reform, here we analyze the different independent variables which influence business cycle. The result also shows obvious negative correlation between business cycle and some exogenous factors like distance and size. We find most regressions turn west-east border negative significant. Results indeed stress the cleavage existing between the western and eastern provinces, which blocks cross-regional economic correlation. Besides, regional cycle can be explained partly by Fangang Index from the different sides. On the other hand, the more reasonable is the economic structure difference, the more synchronized is the business cycle. Fiscal policy divergence and trade density divergence are mainly fluctuation factors for business cycle.