农机市场需求预测研究

A FORECAST RESEARCH ON MARKET DEMAND OF AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY

农机市场的发育是影响农机工业和农业机械化发展的重要因素，而农机需求是农机市场的重要方面。本文运用系统动力学方法及组合预测方法、灰色预测方法，通过建立动态仿真模型、编制ＤＹＮＡＭＯ方程，对黑龙江省大中型拖拉机及其配套农具、小型拖拉机及其配套农具、联合收割机等主要农业机械的需求量进行了预测，为农机生产经营者制定市场营销战略及策略提供依据；为政府有关部门制定宏观调控政策提供决策支持。

The development of agricultural machinery market is an important factor which influences the development of agricultural machinery industry and agricultural machinery However, the demands of agricultural machinery are the important aspects of the agricaltural machinery market Applying the DYNAMO method, combination forecast method and grey system mathod, by means of building up DYNAMO models and equtions, the article forcasted main agricultural machinery demands including tractors and its appendent farm tools, etc in Heilongjiang Province Then, provided the theory accordances of agrultural machinery marketing for producers and the decision-making support policies of market macro-controlling for the related departments of government