上海、首尔、东京城市轨道交通客流发展趋势对比分析

The Contrastive Passenger Volume Analyse of Urban Mass Transit in Shanghai,Seoul and Tokyo

通过对上海、首尔、东京几个典型城市轨道交通客流发展趋势的分析,初步总结得到了城市轨道交通客流变化的基本规律,即:初期相对平缓,近期发展较为迅猛,远期城市内部需求满足型线路客流略有下降或发展平缓,外围引导开发型线路客流在远期之后的几十年内还会有所提升。

This article analyses the passenger volume trend of several typical urban mass transit lines in Shanghai, Seoul and Tokyo. Then it sums up the rule which is based on the passenger volume Variety in above cities. That is： At the beginning the variety is mild. Next some years the passenger volume rise quickly. In the long-dated years the passenger volume of inner city lines will get a little decline or mild variety. Nevertheless, the passenger volume of outer city lines still have ascending trend.