中国外汇储备积累实证研究

为了深刻理解我国外汇储备增长的原因并找出应对策略,本文用向量自回归方法研究了外汇储备积累的原因和机制。实证结果表明,中国实际利率高于外国、货币贬值、经济增长都是导致外汇储备增加的原因。短期内,实际利差、实际汇率、经济增长是影响外汇储备积累的主要因素;而在长期,开放度是影响外汇储备积累的决定性因素,这意味着国内贸易政策比经济活动对外汇储备积累有着更深层次的影响。其政策含义是:缓解外汇储备剧增对经济活动带来的不利影响,重要的是调整出口导向、吸引外资、结售汇等贸易政策,而非人民币升值。

The cause of accumulation of foreign exchange reserve in China is analyzed using VAR model in this paper.Empirical analysis shows that the accumulation of foreign exchange reserve can be caused by China＇s higher real interest rate,renminbi＇s depreciation and economic growth.Real interest rate,real exchange rate and economic growth are main factors which affect the accumulation of foreign exchange reserve in short term.Openness,however,is the dominant factor in long term,which means that local commercial pllicies should be more important than those of economic activities This paper also proves that the commercial policies such as leading to exports attracting foreign capital, buying and Selling foreign exchange to designed commercial banks should be adjusted in order to lessen the negative effect from the faster accumulation of foreign exchange reserve, rather than appreciating RMB.