无历史数据时房地产投资项目的风险模拟

Risk simulation of real estate investment projects with no historical statistics

房地产投资决策的正确与否将直接取决于风险估计的准确性,因此,如何衡量投资项目的风险程度就显得十分重要.在缺乏历史数据条件下,项目投资在建立投资模型时,必须要考虑不确定性因数(即风险因数),包括市场情况、项目期限、投资额及运营收入等.本文假设影响房地产项目投资的主要风险因数服从β分布,如投资额和运营收入,提出了在房地产投资的现金流满足β分布情况下的投资风险模拟模型,并通过实例证明该种方法可以为项目投资决策提供依据.

When there is no historical statistics for reference,it becomes very important to weigh the risk probability of investment projects because whether the division of real estate investment is right or not, it has to be directly based on the accuracy of the risk estimate. On this condition, project investment is totally an uncertain model, and these uncertain factors （risk factors） conclude market prospect, project limit, investment accounts, operation incomes and so on when the model is being set up. Meanwhile, because the major risk factors affecting the project investments are subject to Beta Distribution, such as investment accounts and operation incomes, the paper puts forward a simulation model of investment risk on the condition that the cash flow is subject to Beta distribution in project investments. In the end, according to simulation results, it proves that this method could provide basis for project investment decision-making.