新疆于田县人口变化与持续发展

The Population Change of Yutian County and Sustainable Development

从多角度分析新疆于田县50多年来的人口变化状况,其变动由3个波峰和3个波谷组成。增长率最高峰为1984年的34.13‰,最低峰是1964年的-2.29‰。两者相差36.42‰。形成人口高增长率的因素主要是社会稳定、医疗条件改善、文化大革命及政策;而瘟疫流行、自然灾害、人口惯性及政策控制了其增长。同时,由于宽松的少数民族生育政策,其人口控制和变化比发达地区滞后一个时段,并表现出偏远、自给自足地区受外界干扰少——一种典型封闭系统的人口变化特征。各类人口模式的变化都表明于田县人口变化已趋于一个较为合理的增长,为该县的经济和社会的持续发展提供了客观可能性。

Population is the first factor that affects sustainable development. It is important to make population as the chief issue when studing the relation among the resource, population and environment. For Xinjiang, especially for less developed areas, such as Yutian country, its population natural growth is different from the developed regions and has particular progress rules. Analyzing the character of population change in such special regions is helpful for deeply discussing the effect of population on regional sustainable development, and for getting rid of regional poverty and development of the west regions quickly. This article select population data from 1949 to 2001 of Yutian county and analyze its population condition of fifty years. By the graph of population natural change, we can divide the change into six phases： three wave crests and three troughs. As a whole, the biggest factor makes the population natural growth rate decrease in a short time is disease. In a long time, the important factors which cohtrol the climbing of population natural growth rate are politics, economic condition and the policy. All the factors are not independent and they have close relationship with each other. Because of the loose bearing policy of minority, compared with the developed region, the changes of the population in Yutian county lag a period of time. The changes of every patterns indicates that the change of population in Yutian county tends to a rational increase. It is estimated that its slow population growth may prolong for years in the future.