从国土、人口、环境与发展看我国油气资源

China Oil &. Gas Resources Considered by Viewpoint of Territory, Population, Environment, and Development

我国油气资源量的概念未排除低于经济边际的“无效”资源和资源的非可采部分,与国际通用概念有含义上的差别。按与国际接轨的概念推算,我国石油可采资源量为94.1亿吨,天然气可采资源量为6.737万亿立方米。我国油气资源尚有相当的发展潜力,但国土单位面积的资源占有量和人均占有量均低于世界平均水平。数据分析显示,近期内我国石油产量有下降的可能,但只要加强勘探,努力把更多的资源量转化为储量,情况可有所缓解,产量还可能有所增加;如果加强天然气勘探开发,则天然气产量可有相当大的提高。2000～2020年石油在我国一次能源生产构成中的比例有下降之势,天然气所占比例仅能提高到4％～5％,煤炭仍占约70％。煤炭占这样高的比例将给交通运输和环保造成巨大压力,而经济的高效、高速发展也迫切需要增大油气在能源构成中的比例。为此,必须以极大的决心和有效的措施去加强油气勘探,并及早实施天然气工业的对外开放。国家应创造适于和鼓励油气发展的环境,给予优惠和扶持政策,否则油气勘探将难以快速发展。

The definition of oil and gas resource amount is quite different from that of universally accepted one overseas, because China does not exclude 'ineffective' resources which is lower than economic margin and the section that is unrecoverable. According to the estimation by the concept accepted internationally, the recoverable oil resources in China is 9. 41 billion tons and the recoverable gas resources is 6. 737 trillion cubic meters. Therefore the oil and gas resources is of great potential, but the resources per unit territory and per capita resources is lower than the world average. The data analysis indicates that China's oil production will probably decrease in the near future. However, if exploration is strengthened and more resources are turned into reserves, the situation can be alleviated and oil production will be able to increase. Had natural gas exploration been enforced, the gas production will be raised to a large margin. The share of oil in China's primary energy production in 2000 - 2020 will be shrinked while that of gas will be increased by 4-5%. The share of coal will still be as high as 70%. Such high ratio of coal will inevitably exert huge pressure on transportation and environment protection. Sufficient and high speed economic development require the percentage of oil to rise in the energy structure. Therefore, China must definitely strengthen its oil and gas exploration with effective measures and introduce foreign technology and investment into its natural gas industry as soon as possible. The State should favor oil and gas industry with preferential and supportive policies to create an excellent environment so as to encourage oil and gas development, otherwise oil and gas exploration is hard to be developed quickly.