我国居住水平的长期和短期影响因素实证分析

The Positive Analysis of Long-term and Short-term Determinants of Chinese Residential Level

本文利用协整检验和面板数据分析我国居住水平的长期和短期影响因素。发现利率、收入房价比与居住水平存在长期协整关系,说明利率的提高长期会降低居住水平,限价、限开发房屋种类的政策是短期行为,提供低息房贷和发展中低档商品房的同时提高居民收入的方法才是长效的。面板数据分析发现提高人均收入和维持房地产市场稳定对提高居住水平有重要的作用。东西部房地产市场存在地区差异,东部对利率较敏感,中西部对收入和物价的变化较敏感,针对差异可选择不同的政策。

This paper analyzes the long-term and short-term determinants of Chinese residential level with the cointegration test and panel data. It shows that the residential level is cointegrated with the interest rate and income vs house price ratio. Therefore, the increase of the interest rate will causes the decrease of the residential level in long-term, Price restriction and house class restriction are short-term policies. Low interest rate loan to low income households and developments of low and moderate class houses companied with income growth and are long-run solutions, Panel data analysis finds that per capita income growth and the stability of the real estate market is important for residential level. The east regions are more sensitive to the interest whereas the central and west regions are sensitive to the changes of income and inflation rate. Regional differentiae imply that different areas should be applied different policies.