长春市水资源承载力变动及可持续利用对策

Study on the Change of Carrying Capacity of Water Resources and the Measures for Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in Changchun City

以水资源的供需关系作为衡量水资源承载力的依据,利用统计资料分析了长春市水资源现状。以水资源利用量为因变量,采用主成分分析,在GDP、工业总产值、总人口数、工业需水量和农业需水量等9个与水资源利用量密切相关的指标中筛选出GDP和农业人口两个因子作为自变量,利用多元线性回归分析模型,通过对GDP和农业人口的增长预测了未来10年长春市水资源承载能力。结果表明,未来10年长春市水资源供需矛盾突出,水资源承载能力无法维持经济和社会的正常发展。根据长春市水资源的形势,从开源、节流和管理等方面提出了水资源的可持续利用对策。

In this paper, the actuality of water resources in Changchun City is analyzed by regarding the supply-demand relationship of water resources as the basis of carrying capacity of water resources and using the available statistical data. By using principal component analysis, the carrying capacity of water resources in Changchun City in next 10 years is predicted based on the GDP increase and the rural population growth by taking the demand of water resources as the dependent variable and selecting the GDP and rural population as the independent variables, which are selected from 9 indexes closely related to the demand of water resources, such as the GDP, gross industrial output value, total population, industrial water consumption and agricultural irrigation water consumption. The results show that the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will be very serious in next 10 years, and the carrying capacity of water resources will be not able to maintain the sustainable social and economic development. According to the situation of water recourses in Changchun City, some measure are put forward for achieving the sustainable utilization of water resources based on the consideration of rationally redistributing water resources, increasing the utilization ratio of water resources, exploiting new water sources, saving water consumption, strengthening water resources management, etc.