全球国际收支失衡的调整及对中国经济的影响

Adjustments to Global Imbalances in the Balance of Payments and Implications for the Chinese Economy

国际收支失衡是21世纪初期全球宏观经济的重要特征。从一般均衡的视角出发,当前国际收支失衡是由美国的投资储蓄缺口以及东亚国家和石油输出国的储蓄过剩共同导致的。从经常项目账户赤字将导致一国净对外债务上升的视角出发,当前的国际收支失衡是不能持续的。国际收支失衡的调整路径主要有政策协调主导和金融市场主导两种,而后者具有很强的破坏性。情景分析的结果显示,各国主动实施国内政策调整,并就调整成本达成实质性的分担协议,对中国经济和世界经济而言都是最优选择。

The imbalances in the global balance of payments are one of the most important features of the world economy in the early 21st century. From the perspective of a general equilibrium, the global imbalances are caused by both the savings investment gap of the United States and the savings glut in the economies of the East Asian and OPEC countries. Given that the current account deficit will cause a rise in the net international investment position, the current imbalance is unsustainable. The global imbalances can be resolved in two ways: the major countries should coordinate their policies and realize an active or passive adjustment in the capital market. The analysis in this scenario suggests that the best choice for China and the world economies is to implement domestic policy adjustments and to reach a cost-sharing agreement.