发展中国家国际直接投资发展之路——投资发展周期理论述评

The Path of the Development of International Direct Investment in Developing Country

本文认为,英国经济学家邓宁的投资发展周期理论(即IDP理论)及净对外直接投资(NOI)概念是分析研究发展中国家企业成长和对外直接投资增长趋势的有用工具。该理论按照人均GDP水平将国家的国际直接投资发展道路分为五个阶段,处于不同阶段的国家,其国际直接投资流入流出水平各不相同,其净对外直接投资先负后正,上下波动,但波幅趋小。以投资发展周期理论模型来分析,中国目前正处于第二阶段的后期,将向第三阶段转移。

The author introduces the theory of IDP developed by John H. Dunning, an English Scholar. According to GDP per capita, this theory divides the development of international direct investment into five stages. The inflow and outflow of international direct investment of countries in different stages will be different. The concept of IDP and its model is an effective tool that can be used to analyze the development of enterprises in developing countries and the growth trend of international direct investment. According to IDP model, China is staying in the late of the second stage, and is transforming to the third stage.