2010-2015年世界天然气供需展望

2010-2015 world natural gas supply and demand outlook

据法国国际天然气信息中心(Cedigaz)预测,2005-2010年世界天然气消费年均增长率约为2.5%,拉丁美洲、亚太、非洲和中东地区的天然气消费年增长率可达4%甚至更高。2010年之后,世界天然气消费增长速度有可能减缓,预计年均增速不超过2.2%。世界天然气行业的发展前景不仅将受到因气价升高而造成的日益加剧的各种能源间竞争的影响,还将受到由于产气国投资不足、技术有限所造成的产量约束以及政策变化带来的影响。为了保持供需平衡,天然气的运输量将大大增加,天然气管道运输和LNG运输的管理将更加趋于复杂。预计2006-2010年,世界LNG需求将以每年大约9%的速度稳步增长。2010年之后,苏伊士以东和以西地区的许多国家有可能加入LNG进口国的行列。到2015年,世界LNG贸易在天然气总贸易量中的份额将从2005年的22.3%增加到30%。天然气行业的新发展,特别是行业建设投资规模的扩大、更加开放的竞争环境将逐步促使形成一个新的天然气市场运行模式,从而有利于世界天然气供需平衡。

According to the projections of France-based Cedigaz, the annual growth rate in the world's natural gas consumption is expected to average around 2.5% from 2005 to 2010, with the rate at Latin America, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East going up to 4% or higher. The increase in the global natural gas consumption is projected to slow down after 2010, with the annual average rate declining to no more than 2.2%. The prospects for the global natural gas industry is affected not only by the intensifying competition among different sources of energy as a result of the soaring natural gas price, but possible limits on production put by inadequate investment and technologies or potential changes in policies. Natural gas transport is expected to greatly increase to keep the supply and demand in balance, making it more complicated for the management of natural gas pipeline transport and LNG transport. The world's LNG demand is expected to steadily increase by roughly 9% each year from 2006 to 2010. Beyond 2010, LNG development prospects remain favorable both east and west of Suez. Many countries will likely join the ranks of importers. The share of LNG in the natural gas trade is expected to increase to 30% by 2015 from 22.3% in 2005. New developments, particularly concerning investments in a restructured gas industry, more open to competition will gradually lead to a new market functioning model to which the industry will have to adapt to avoid jeopardizing the world gas balance.