汇率变动对农产品出口企业的影响——山东省胶东调查

The Effects of a Floating Exchange Rate on Agribusiness Exports:Evidence from the Jiaodong Area of Shandong Province

人民币汇率变动后,中国农产品出口企业受到了一定程度的冲击。汇率变动造成的这种影响可以分为直接效应和间接效应:首先,汇率变动对企业出口应收账款造成了贬值损失;其次,人民币升值导致企业出口量减少,这种效应有一定的滞后性。来自山东省胶东地区企业层面的证据表明,这两种效应都比较显著。而且,其作用的发挥都会受到企业内部组织制度、产品属性等因素的影响。因此,企业需要对经营做出灵活调整,政府可以在制度方面给予企业一定的帮助。

The appreciation of the RMB impacted Agribusiness exports in a sense. The appreciation had two effects-a direct effect and an indirect effect. To begin with, international agricultural trade payments are quite special for causing depreciation losses in enterprises＇ accounts receivable. Moreover, RMB appreciation lowered expected profit from exports; so, exports diminished. This indirect effect occurs with a lag. The evidence from the Jiaodong Area of Shandong Province demonstrates both the direct and the indirect effects of RMB appreciation. Last but not the least, both kinds of effects are subject to factors such as the internal organization and management of firms and the nature of the products. To deal with exchange risk firms need to adjust their management strategies. The government should adjust the exchange rate mechanism and help firms to develop markets.