样条修正磨光法对我国建筑陶瓷进出口趋势的预测

SPLINE MODIFIED SMOOTHING METHOD FORCAST EXPORT-IMPORT OF BUILDING CERAMICS IN CHINA

通过研究样条函数(Spline function),提出样条修正磨光法模型(Spline Modified Smoothing Method)对我国建筑陶瓷的进出口数量和进出口金额进行了模拟,克服了灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型要经过平移变换的繁杂过程。结果表明,样条修正磨光法对扰动大的数据模拟效果比灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的模拟效果更好,精度较高,预测误差小,为陶瓷生产和发展提供了可靠的理论方法。

A modeling of spline modified smoothing method simulates Export-Import Quantity and Export-Import Amount of building ceramics in china through studying spline function.It overcome complex procedure through Translational Transformation in grey Metabolism GM（1,1） model. The result express that spline modified smoothing method is better to simulate greater Disturbances data, its Accuracy is better and its forcast Errors is less than grey Metabolism GM（1,1） model. It supply reliable theory method for ceramica production and development.