基于CMS模型的中国肉类对日本出口变动分析

Analysis on the Changes of China's Meat Exported to Japan Based on the CMS Model

1993～2005年日本从中国进口的肉类快速增长，同时，中国在日本肉类进口市场上的份额也在提高。文章运用CMS模型分析了中国及其主要竞争对手向日本出口肉类的变动，并试图分解出各影响因素对肉类出口变动的作用程度。分析结果表明，中国对日本肉类出口增长的主要影响因素是综合竞争力的提高；对中国主要竞争对手的比较分析也表明，竞争力是影响各国对日本肉类出口的主要因素。

During 1993-2005, export of meat to Japan from China has grown fast. Simultaneously, the market share China possessed in Japan has also increased. This paper used CMS model to analyze the change of meat exported from China and its main competitors to Japan. This paper also analyzed the functionary degree of each factor influencing meat exporting to Japan. The analysis result indicates that, as far as China is concerned, the main factor inducing the export-to-Japan increase is the general competitive ability. The comparative analysis between China and its main competitors also showed that competitive effect is the primary influencing factor.