摘要
分析了传染病的传播扩散特点,建立了传染病传播扩散的微分方程模型.利用最大似然估计法对模型中的参数进行了估计.并以SARS传染扩散为例,利用网上的公开数据对模型进行了检验,所得结果与实际情况一致.此模型为传染病的预防和控制提供了理论依据.
The characteristics of epidemic disease were analyzed and a differential equation model for epidemic disease spreading was set. The parameters in model were estimated by maximum likelihood estimate method. The model was examined by the existing data of SARS from internet. The result was consistent with real data. This model provided theoretical basis for preventing and controlling the propagation of the epidemic.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第14期177-182,共6页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
华北电力大学教改基金(1309502)
关键词
传染病
微分方程模型
最大似然估计
SARS
infectious disease
differential equation model
maximum likelihood estimation
SARS
