摘要
我国近年来存在流动性过剩现象，而且货币缺口逐年扩大。格兰杰因果检验与协整检验显示，流动性过剩指标与房地产价格之间存在显著的因果关系。对发展中国家而言，房地产价格泡沫破裂的危害要超过股票价格泡沫。我国通过控制货币和信贷数量来挤压房地产泡沫具有可行性与必要性。而控制股票市场泡沫则难以通过货币政策取得良好成效。因为实证结果不支持流动性过剩指标与股票价格之间的因果关系。
It is concluded that monetary liquidity of China is in excess in recent years and monetary gap is growing by several measures of excess liquidity. Granger causality tests and cointegration tests reveal that there is a cointegration relationship between excess liquidity and real estate price and there are many instances of circular Granger causality between them. And for developing countries, harm brought by real estate price bubble burst is generally more severe than that by equity price bubble burst. Therefore, China should control money supply and credit to squeeze real estate bubble. Similarly, monetary tightening policy can not squeeze the equity price bubble for causality does not run from excess liquidity to equity price.
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第7期48-53,共6页
Reform
关键词
流动性过剩
资产价格
货币政策
excess monetary liquidity, asset price, monetary policy
