基于“前景理论”的路径选择行为建模及实例分析

A traveler route choice model based on prospect theory and case study

出行者路径选择行为的建模对于城市交通系统分析具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。传统的路径选择模型基于"期望效用理论",但该理论存在着某些不足。"前景理论"能够较好的描述不确定性条件下的决策过程。首先在"前景理论"的框架下对一天内单次出行的路径选择行为进行了理论建模:确定了出行者的主观感知费用函数,并定义了出行过程中的参照点,给出了前景值的计算方法。最后以具有两条平行路径的简单路网为例,从理论推算以及SP调查两方面,对比了基于"前景理论"与基于"期望效用理论"的路径选择模型,结果表明"前景理论"在描述出行者的路径选择行为时能够在一定程度上克服"期望效用理论"的不足,可以较准确地刻画出行者在不确定性条件下的路径选择决策行为,也为进一步对ATIS影响分析及仿真建模工作奠定了理论基础。

It is critical to model traveler＇s route choice behavior when analyzing the transportation system. The disadvantages of the Expected Utility Theory, which serves as a basis for most of the existing route choice models, are reviewed. Within the framework of Prospect Theory, a theoretical model is formulated for travelers＇ route choice behavior within a day as follows： （1） The traveler＇s subjective perception function of trip cost is proposed, （2） The definition of reference point for travelers＇ trip decision is defined, and （3） the calculation method of prospect value is provided. The Prospect Theory is compared with the Expect Utility Theory in their ability of modeling travelers＇ route choice behavior from theoretical calculations and SP surveys, respectively, through a case study. The results demonstrate that the Prospect Theory could provide a more accurate description of travelers＇ route choice behavior under the conditions of uncertainty than the Expect Utility Theory.