重庆市“十一五”天然气需求组合预测研究

Study on Combined Forecasts of Chongqing’s Natural Gas Market Demand During 11t h Five-Year Plan Period

运用组合预测思想,将灰色预测模型GM(1,1)与马尔可夫链组合起来对重庆市"十一五"期间天然气需求量进行预测。通过预测得知,"十一五"期间重庆市天然气需求将呈快速增长趋势,到2010年需求量将达到41.35×108m^3以上。

By means of combined predication, GM(1,1) was combined with the Markov chain to predicate ChongQing gas demand during the 11th five plan. Through the predication, there is a growing tendency for Chongqing natural gas demand which would reach 41.35×108m3 above in 2010.